Adapting In COVID-19: A Product Forecasting Framework
Sean Vander Linde
Jenna Riffell, PhD
Adapting In COVID-19: A Product Forecasting Framework
Kx’s Key Takeaways For Product and Finance Teams
- Separate The Trough And Rebound: Modeling both the duration of the trough and the slope of the rebound, from peak COVID-19 infections to recovery, is critical to developing an accurate product forecast
- Layer In Regional Segmentation: Accurate forecasting requires more regional segmentation than most models demand due to the local variation in COVID-19 cases and varied government restrictions responding to the virus
- Expand Data Sources: Although COVID-19 is unprecedented in many respects, historical data can be used to model its impact. Utilizing a variety of data sources—analog regions that roll back restrictions earlier, patient and provider research, and prior economic downturns —can provide a valuable frame of reference to develop a more informed forecast
- Make It A Living, Breathing Model: With new restrictions and the medical community’s fast-paced response, it’s critical for companies to regularly monitor and update forecasting assumptions as the pandemic evolves
COVID-19 Impacts Product Forecasting For Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Companies
Dealing with significant evolving obstacles associated with COVID-19, businesses worldwide are adjusting their 2020 strategic plans. Pharmaceutical and medical device companies face particularly complicated hurdles, including procedure delays, office closures, and more that prevent patient access to their products. In this time of uncertainty, it’s critical to develop an informed view of future sales to establish a strategic plan and mitigate future risks to the business.
Your Adaptable Product Forecasting Framework
Kx Advisors created this framework to assist organizations in accurately forecasting sales during a time of high uncertainty with COVID-19. We recommend approaching the problem in two stages: the trough and the rebound. While organizations around the globe are currently in midst of the trough, understanding both stages is crucial for full-scale recovery. The questions we’ve identified for this framework can be split into three categories of barriers that COVID-19 presents: policy barriers, behavioral barriers, and economic barriers. Policy barriers are directly related to the pandemic management decisions of governments and medical associations, while behavioral barriers are driven by changes in industry competitor, physician, and patient behavior, and economic barriers are those created by changing economic conditions affecting willingness to pay.
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Planning During COVID-19
While no one can predict the future, this framework should help you gain critical insights to better project and respond to these challenges. Leveraging this tool to strategize is only step one; your product team must continually monitor the quickly evolving factors impacting the framework’s components and adjust your strategy as needed to stay ahead of the economic effect of this pandemic.
Kx Is Here To Help
Struggling with product forecasting during this crisis? With extensive forecasting experience, we’re experts at quantifying what is hard to quantify. Our healthcare experts will rapidly analyze the changing field and build strategies with your team around the opportunities we identify.
